Sweet 16

Before we get started I want to let you know how I did in my player to watch predictions.

1. Courtney Lee
72 Minutes Played, 44 points, 16 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 steals, 6 turnovers
Synopsis: Lee deferred quite a bit in the first game against Drake to his teammate Tyrone Brazelton, but still made his presence known with 15 points and 9 rebounds. In game 2, he was much more assertive and dominated the game from start to finish with 29 points and 7 rebounds on 9-15 shooting. I would say I predicted well on this one, although I am only 1 out of 30 million people who told you to look out for him.

2. Josh Young
40 Minutes played, 18 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals, 2 turnovers
Synopsis: While Young's stats look about right for what he did on the season, he was turned in a relatively poor performance in his only game of the tournament. He will have 2 more years to make a dent in the NCAAs, but starting out 1-11 from behind the three point arc and finishing 5-15 from the field, and 4-14 from behind the arc certainly did not help his game out. Imagine, just 1 of his 10 misses from behind the arc goes in, and Drake moves on to play San Diego with a chance at the Sweet 16. Not well done at all on my part.

3. Garrison Carr
40 minutes played, 26 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 turnovers
Synopsis: Carr was the little engine that could for American, and was the only offensive weapon for the Eagles against the staunch defense of Tennessee. He took 21 shots, made 9 of them, including 6 from behind the arc to the tune of 26 points with a rotating set of Tennessee defenders draped all over him. I would say he was a player to watch, for all of those who bet out there American covered the spread so that is a moral victory for them and it was all due to Carr and his sweet outside shooting.

4. Demetric Bennett
33 minutes played, 6 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 turnovers
Synopsis: This was the worst player to watch. How can your best player take 8 shots the entire game? Well maybe if he plays with the fire of JD Drew. Bennett was terrible, and Butler ran roughshod over the Jaguars. Unlucky pick by me.

5. Jason Richards
76 minutes played, 35 points, 14 assists, 4 rebounds, 2 steals, 3 turnovers
Synopsis: We have some bandwagon jumpers here in the sportswriter world. These guys fawn over Stephen Curry the way college kids fawn over a filet mignon after weeks of their campus dining hall. Curry is that good, I admit, he is the best scorer college hoops has seen in a long time, and he chose a perfect time to get hot against Georgetown, but Andy Katz said the reason Davidson was in the position they are now is solely because of Dell's son. That's just plain wrong.

Jason Richards played 1 more minute than Stephen Curry did, and while he didn't match Curry's offensive output he was more vital to the team's success. Someone is going to try to tell me that having him bring the ball up against the suffocating defense of Jeremy Pargo wasn't more important than all those points for Curry? Even if you think I am crazy for that statement, the only reason Davidson was in the position against Gtown for Curry to take over is because Jason Richards hit every big jumper he took in the first half and the beginning of the second half, he single-handedly kept them within striking distance against the Hoyas and then led the charge back, which consequently took some of the pressure of Curry who promptly flourished.

........Now on to the Sweet 16, I will break down every game and give you three reasons why I think that team will win. (P.S. Mine will be better than what Andy Katz wrote today.)

North Carolina v. Washington State:
Winner is North Carolina

1. Too much offense:
This is a fantastic matchup for analysts because they get to say great offense vs. great defense, something has got to give!!!! Well that is a crock of shit. Anyone who has seen the Tar Heels play so far knows that they are clicking on all cylinders, and if anyone thinks that the Washington State defense will stifle UNC like they stifled the prolific offenses of Winthrop and Notre Dame needs to think again.

5 players scored double figures for the Tar Heels against Arkansas, and Danny Green and Quinton Thomas had 8 and 6 respectively. Washington State can defend, and if anyone can lock up Hansborough its the rough and tumble Aron Baynes, but Carolina has too many weapons.

2. Ty Lawson:
North Carolina has been patiently waiting all season for Lawson to become the point guard he has shown he can be all season, but saddled with injuries, Lawson has struggled to be consistent...until the ACC tournament and now the NCAA tournament.

He had 21 and 4 against Mt. Saint Mary's in limited minutes, and even more impressive was the 19 and 7 he dropped on Gary Ervin yesterday in just 24 minutes. I can't even begin to tell you how many times Stepheson, Thompson and Green dunked the ball thanks to great vision by Lawson. He will be playing full speed against the Cougars, and that is bad news for Tony Bennett's squad.

3. Too much depth:
Everyone has said this all year about the Tar Heels, that they are the deepest team in the country as far as talent from top to bottom, Quinton Thomas could start for every team in the Big Ten practically, and before Bobby Frasor went down, he wasn't even in the rotation. Robbie Cowgill and Aron Baynes make up a real rugged front court, but the fact that North Carolina can rotate Hansborough, Thompson, Stepheson, and Green, 4 legitimate post threats will wear the duo from Wazzu out.

Also, keep in mind that the depth does not end with the front court, it extends to the list of Lawson, and Wayne Ellington, and Thomas, and Marcus Ginyard, and even Will Graves... thats a lot of ANDs, but I use them to make my point. Washington State is relatively deep, they probably run a consistent 8 man rotation and Bennett can go 9-deep if he has too, but the Tar Heels will wear Wazzu out and win handily is my guess.

Tennessee vs. Louisville:
Winner is Louisville

I want to first say that this game, on paper, has the makings to be one of the best games of the tournament thanks to the style of play and depth of the two teams. Both play deep rotations, and both hound their opponents with full-court defense, which is unrelenting due to the number of players that get involved, if I had TiVo, or even a TV in my room, it would be tuned to this game.

1. Size, Size, Size:
Tennessee is not a small team by any means, Wayne Chism, Duke Crews, and Brian Williams make up a solid, but young front court, and if you want to get technical Tyler Smith can join the front court as well. But these guys are very young, and not exactly big-bodied rebounders down low.

Case and point is in the rebounding numbers. While they did a much better job against Butler, out-rebounding the Bulldogs 43-34, Butler is not a tall team and has no one all that physically imposing in the middle of the paint. Yet, the Volunteers were out-rebounded handily, 37-25, by an equally diminutive American team, including allowing 16 offensive rebounds. These are not numbers that inspire confidence.

Do you really think that Tennessee is going to out-rebound a team that features David Padgett, Earl Clark, Derek Caracter, and Juan Palacios, all of whom with the exception of maybe Caracter are seasoned veterans and rebounders? It's just not going to happen. If these four can get Chism, who is the most important front court Volunteer, in foul trouble, they will have a field day drawing Williams out on the perimeter, where all of the Cardinals big men are comfortable, and then driving by them. Not a good sign for Tennessee.

2. Where is the point guard?
Bruce Pearl's decision to hand the point guard role to J.P Prince for the Butler game was a logical one. Prince, a former five-star prospect is a better player than J.P. Howell, a smart veteran who is not dangerous offensively, and a little slow defensively. But for those of you who watched the game you now all see why Bruce Pearl is definitely losing sleep over this match-up looming. Prince had 6 turnovers for the game, including 2 on consecutive possessions with Tennessee either tied or nursing a small lead where he, 1)travelled, and 2) drove baseline and got caught in the air and through the ball to Mike Green which led to the tying basket. Prince is young, and Pearl will live with his errors if he continues to contribute on the glass and the scoreboard. But not against Louisville.

In the past month, the Cardinals have had more turnovers than the opposing team only twice, including their NCAA tournament games. Those games where they had more turnovers were a 14 point win against Villanova, who had an good ball handler in Scottie Reynolds, and a 2 point victory over Pittsburgh, who has an experienced point guard in Levance Fields. The point is, Louisville flat out harasses the ball handlers of whatever team they play. Don't expect the slower tandem of Howell and Prince to be able to beat Jerry Smith, Edgar Sosa, and Andre McGee down the floor very often. Combined with the knowledge that Earl Clark and Terrence Williams think like football safeties and snatch away any pass with a little too much air, and you have a recipe for disaster for Tennessee, who will not be able to handle the Cardinals.

3. The more 3s the merrier:
It is easy to see why this next statement can work both ways for Rick Pitino's team because...wait for it... Louisville lives and dies by the three pointer. Their back to back losses to Georgetown and Pittsburgh in the Big East tournament were because the Cardinals went a combined 8-37 from behind the three-point arc, which is like Memphis from the free-throw line. Jerry Smith and Andre McGee, and Terrence Williams, the big three-ballers for the 'Ville, were abysmal in their consecutive losses before the tournament, and if they shoot poorly again I take back my prediction, and Tennessee will win( I know this is a cop out, because shooting is always a big if...but deal with it.)

The problem for Tennessee is that Louisville seems to have broken out of that shooting slump. Granted their new-found touch came against lesser defensive opponents than Georgetown and Pittsburgh, but shooting 50% from downtown is shooting 50%, and that is ridiculous good for a team that shoots the three like Nate Newton smokes marijuana. Tennessee shoots three as well, but Chris Lofton really isn't assertive enough offensively to break free from Lousiville defender X (and it could be pretty much anyone, my guess is Smith) and Louisville will just continue to shoot until they start to fall and Tennessee will be left picking their noses at the end of the game.

Memphis vs. Michigan State
Winner is...Memphis

1. We have more good players than you:
Reason #1 really speaks for itself. Michigan State is an extremely streaky team, Drew Neitzel can score 30 one night, and put up 6 the next, and don't even get me started on Raymar Morgan, who should be able to take over a game LeBron-style with his body but settles for long jumpers just like LeBron used to. Plus, Drew Naymick and Goran Suton are serviceable, but certainly not threats.
Meanwhile Memphis can run out a team of uber-recruits anytime they want, and they complement the uber-recruits with great role players like Andre Allen, and Antonio Anderson. Just break it down by starting 5.

Derrick Rose is a consensus top 5 draft pick and an incredible talent, as he showed against Miss. State. Kalin Lucas is a great player as well, but not as big or strong or talented as Rose is.

Antonio Anderson doesn't have to score because he plays great defense, and while Neitzel might be a better player, he is one dimensional, and frankly not athletic enough to free himself from Anderson easily every possession. He might get some ok looks, but I guarantee more often than not Anderson will have a hand in his face. Defensively Neitzel might as well not even be there, and Anderson is big, too big for Neitzel to handle.

Raymar Morgan will be a stud, and is certainly a grown man with limitless capabilities. But he is facing a terrific college player and a extremely gifted scorer named Chris Douglas-Roberts. While Roberts might not be a great defender to put on Morgan, sometimes Morgan makes it easy on opposing defenses by settling for bad shots. Meanwhile, Morgan is a good defender, but not good enough to keep Douglas-Roberts from his 17 points.

Robert Dozier is a carbon-copy of Drew Naymick with a little less muscle and a little more skill, and Joey Dorsey, if he plays like he did against Miss. State, is too athletic for Suton, who better be careful to watch the contact or else he could find himself on the bench.

2. Youth will not prevail:
Outside of Naymick, Neitzel, and Suton, all of the Spartans impact players are young, and I include Raymar Morgan. The aforementioned three are a great starting point, but a freshman point guard (Lucas), and back up freshman point guard (Chris Allen) and young, still learning superstar (Morgan) is not a great nucleus to base their teams chances on. These guys will need to play extraordinarily in order to beat the Tigers. Against Pitt Lucas was incredible, but outside of Lucas' 19, Neitzel's 21, and Suton's 14. The Spartans didn't have any other scoring options, and with Derrick Rose and Antonio Anderson likely draped all over the Spartans fantastic back court, scoring will be tougher than it was against Levance Fields, and Ronald Ramon.

Meanwhile Memphis starts a senior (Dorsey), three juniors, (Douglas-Roberts, Dozier, Anderson) and the other-wordly freshman (Rose). Also, their big 4 off the bench (Allen, Doneal Mack, Willie Kemp, and Shawn Taggart) are all sophomores, except Allen who is a senior, and all of them except Taggart played significant minutes in the NCAA tournament run they made last season. Plus they spread their scoring around more than Pittsburgh does, or in other words, they have more weapons, and so it will be important for Michigan State to try and score in bunches or else the game will get out of hand quick.

3. Derrick Rose:
If I had the first pick in the NBA draft, I would take Michael Beasley, but it is absurd for me to think that Eric Gordon is a better pick at number 2 than Derrick Rose, a sure-fire franchise point guard. Rose was brilliant against Miss. State, and he was matched up against a terrific senior point guard in Jamont Gordon who is no slouch. While Kalin Lucas may be able to hang with Rose as far as quickness and pure speed are concerned. The size and strength differential will make an enormous difference in who wins the battle of freshman point guards. My prediction? Rose will come close to a triple-double, and Lucas will not play well.