Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Yankees v. Red Sox...Part 2

And I'm back with the second half list of breakdowns by position. So lets not waste any time...

Designated Hitter: David Ortiz vs. Shelley Duncan
This is another easy victor, David Ortiz has become one of the most feared left-handed hitters in all of baseball, and the two-man rotation of Shelley Duncan and Jason Giambi frankly can't measure up.

In what was considered an off year for the Boston slugger, Ortiz still managed to half maybe the most productive year at the plate for an American League hitter this side of A-Rod. While his home run total dropped steeply, he still managed to hit .332, drive in 117 runs, and score 116 of his own. Did I mention his OBP was .445, and his OPS bested 1.000? Frankly, David Ortiz may have had a poor statistical year, but he is still the Red Sox most feared hitter, and I wouldn't expect any sort of drop off in numbers again this year, as he will hopefully have had time to rest his myriad of illnesses and injuries that troubled him during the season.

On the other side of the coin, Shelley Duncan only played 3 months of the season, July, August, and September, and while he demolished pitching in those first two months, 2 of his home runs came against a young Orioles team, and 3 came against Tampa Bay, not exactly the cream of the crop as far as pitching is concerned. He has a chance to be a productive member of the line up whether it is at first base, or designated hitter, but don't expect him to hit .300, and unless he has Lasik surgery, don't expect his tendency to swing at everything to change either.

Winner: Ortiz is one of the most dangerous power hitters in the entire league, while Shelley Duncan looks more like Shane Spencer than Lou Gehrig.

Left Field: Manny Ramirez vs. Hideki Matsui
Nothing makes me happier than listening to Yankees fans bitch and moan about how many doesn't take the game seriously, and how he barely even tries anymore. Hideki Matsui on the other hand is a consumate professional. "Godzilla" goes about his business and handles the day-to-day routine of baseball like a job. So we need statistical breakdowns:

Matsui missed sometime last year, and still managed to be his normal productive and reliable self. .285, with 25 homers, 28 doubles, and 103 RBIs. He is a solid left fielder, not a good one, but certainly someone who will not hurt the team over the course of the season. Durability is the only real issue. Ever since that freak injury in left field, Matsui has had arthroscopic knee surgery, and has most recently been complaining about a stiff neck (only in baseball is a stiff neck a real injury, if you have time, read all of Yahoo's fantasy injury notes, they are terrific comedy). My guess is that stiff neck will not cause any problems, and Matsui will be shipshape by opening day, or at least by the end of April (he better be or else I am in the market for a fantasy left fielder).

Manny Ramirez hit 30 home runs and 100 Rbis again last season...How used to that statement is everyone in Boston? The sad thing is, everyone probably still thinks he did that last season, but those who do are incorrect. In his worst statistical season since 1997 with the Indians, Manny coasted to a .296 batting average, with a paltry 20 homers and 88 Rbis, and he slugged under .500 for the first time since his rookie season with Indians. Now many did not get a whole lot of at bats, and certainly took a good deal of rest in August and September which of course drew the ire of Red Sox fans.

But really, do you think Manny gives a shit? This guy has been a hitting machine since he came into the league. He may not do anything other than hit, and throw people out who still continue to try to stretch a line drive single of the Monster into a double. Seriously, Manny playing left field is the baseball version of the rope-a-dope, he lulls runners to sleep with his slow gait, and then pegs them out when the get greedy.

My guess is Manny will have a better season this year than he did his last season, but it won't be significantly better. Hopefully he will care...but I wouldn't even bet a dollar on it.

Winner: Push because frankly this position has too many questions marks. For Matsui, its whether his stiff neck and geriatric knee can handle a grueling 500 ABs. For Manny, its wondering whether a light will turn on in his head, and he will return to the 30 homer 100 Rbi Monster we in the Fens all know him as...until those things are proven, I will withhold picking one over the other.

Centerfield: Jacoby Ellsbury vs. Melky Cabrera
The battle of the promising youngsters for both of these teams begins in center field, where veteran stalwarts Johnny Damon and CoCo Crisp have been jettisoned in favor of the promising youngsters who are replacing them. This is another really close battle, and it but it would be unfair to name it a push, so I will pick a winner.

Jacoby Ellsbury has become the new Fred Lynn for the Boston Red Sox. Young, smooth fielding, good-looking centerfielder. In just 116 at bats last season with the big club, Ellsbury was surprisingly good. He hit at a .353 clip, and .360 in the playoffs, and scored 20 runs which is terrific considering he was on base only 49 times. The real question is can he keep it up? My guess is that he will probably sleep with more women this season, but that will be the only statistic that rises. Its impossible to expect him to hit .350 in his first full season of major league baseball. But a .300 season with 40 stolen bases is not out of the question at all. Plus, he was the minor league defensive player of the year for the Pawtucket Red Sox, so it looks like he is a 4-tool player with the power being absent.

Not to be outdone, at the ripe age of 23, Cabrera had a terrific season in the outfield for New York. He hit .273, and drove in 75 runs, although in that line up that number means about as much as Lugo's Rbi totals. But, playing left and center field, Cabrera had just 4 errors, and 16 assists, while showing a good deal of poise and grace for such a young player to roam the confines of Yankee Stadium. The one knock, as with all young players, he has not learned how to be selective yet at the plate. His OBP was .327, which really isn't all that good, and to have less than 1/3 of your hits be for extra bases is solid, but nothing to brag about.

Winner: While Jacoby Ellsbury could potentially keep the momentum from the playoffs and just catch fire in April and May, My winner is Cabrera because he had over 500 ABs, and until Ellsbury plays a full season, you really can't pick him over Cabrera.

Right Field: JD Drew vs. Bobby Abreu
While JD Drew has been relaxing all off season, Bobby Abreu has been turning all of that trans-fat he used to carry into muscle, and now has come into camp looking sharp after a less than stellar season last year. But its really a tale of 2 halfs.

Abreu caught fire after the all-star break, and while he looked like he was allergic to Bowflex, he still managed to hit .305 with 11 of his 16 homers coming after the all-star break in what was a great second half for the Yankee team. But, if Hideki Matusi goes down with another injury, Abreu will be relied upon to hold down the number 5 spot in the order behind A-Rod and give him some protection, and it will be interesting to see how he does. I feel like the Yankees are so old, that 4 or 5 of their players are going to beg Girardi to DH, and Abreu is one of them. His arm really isn't that scary, and he covers a lot less ground than he did in his previous year's, but, I guess we will find out.

JD Drew hit a grand slam against the Indians in the playoffs, and all of the criticism he drew last season was absolved, and replaced with this warm happy feeling. Well, despite being a Red Sox fan, I am not buying any of it. I hated the JD Drew deal as soon as we signed him, and it is still a really bad deal from a monetary stand point. If Wily Mo Pena had started in right field would the production from that position really be that different? He hit .270 for the season, with 11 homers and just 64 Rbis, and he was hitting behind Ortiz and Manny and Lowell all season. It's not like he is due for a bounce back year either, because there really isn't anything to bounce back to, aside from his contract year with the Dodgers, 64 Rbis is the 4th most he has had in his illustrious 9-year career. Just pathetic, and unless he gets magicked into a better player, this position really isn't all that contentious

Winner: Abreu is not a bum, even when he is way out of shape and plays horribly he still tops 100 Rbis, Drew...huge bum.

Ace: Josh Beckett vs. Chien-Ming Wang
Both of these teams hold a plethora of young pitching talent, and so its important to distinguish who is the better ace, because when playoff time rolls around, these are the two men who are going to need to carry the team down the stretch.
Chien-Ming Wang has surreptitiously slid into the ace roll for the Yankees and flourished. Other than the fact that he looks like he is about to cry when he gets in a jam, he has been a terrific pitcher for the Yankees. His heavy sinker produces a lot of ground balls outs, and although he doesn't strike a lot of people out, he has won 19 games in 2006 and 2007, to become one of the better pitchers in baseball. However, to my knowledge, and I would have to ask the Schwab about this, Wang has never had an extremely attractive girlfriend, and he has never sworn on National television. He really just doesn't look like he has the killer instinct, he is unassuming and solid, but not fiery.
Beckett probably would have won the American League Cy Young Award if it was voted on after the playoffs, but because it doesn't work that way, he was relegated to second place behind C.C. Sabathia. That being said, it is clear the difference a year makes in the American League. In 2006 he at least gave the fans a little souvenir with their expensive ticket by giving up 36 home runs and having an ERA of over 5.00. Then, last season, he stopped being so damn stubborn by trying to throw fastballs by everybody, and started working with Varitek to harness is lethal arsenal. Beckett was just plain silly last season, he won 20 games, was 6 strikeouts away from 200, and had the greatest post season of any pitcher in the last 10 years. I can't see anything shaking out differently for Beckett this season, my expectation is for him to put together the same season he had last season.

Winner: Beckett has two World Series rings, and Chien-Ming Wang has 0, Beckett has one World Series MVP, and an ALCS MVP, Wang has none...case closed.

For those of you scoring at home, that makes the final score 4-3 in favor of the Yankees, but I also failed to do the rest of the rotations because its really a lot of speculation, and I also failed to do managers because I really I have f*&%ing clue how to quantify what a manager means for the team. I do know Francona has some rings and Girardi doesn't, but Girardi has one season a manager and has won coach of the year for the job he did with a Florida team with considerably less talent than the current Yankees.

All in all, bring on the over-hyped Sportscenter montages and constant "best rivalry in sports" labellings, because I want to see some baseball. We will get our first taste on opening weekend, unfortunately I will be in DC maybe watching the Nationals play the Marlins while I get housed in my $10 bleacher seats.

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